Market movers today
In the euro area the final service PMIs are published. Focus will be on the first release of the figures in the periphery. In Italy, the service PMI has lagged the progress in the manufacturing PMI but we expect it will start to increase as indicated by the higher Italian consumer confidence. The Spanish service PMI should also continue higher as private consumption supports the strong recovery.
We expect euro-area retail sales to have declined by 0.8% m/m in March after declining 0.2% m/m in February. Low gasoline prices have become less of a tailwind and decreasing consumer confidence in April suggests somewhat weaker retail sales in the coming months. This gives downside risk to our forecast for private consumption in Q1 but it should still support the recovery as retail sales were strong in January.
In the US the ADP employment report will be followed closely ahead of the job report due for release on Friday. Consensus is for an increase of 200K up from 189K in March. Compared to the job report, job creation was modest in March and we expect a rebound to 215K in April, which is slightly below consensus, see more in US Labour Market Monitor . Fed's Lockhart and George will speak.
The Scandi markets will focus on Swedish PMI, Norwegian housing data and Danish portfolio investments.
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