Market movers today
We face the quietest day on the data calendar this week as focus turns to eurozone investor confidence, eurozone goods consumption and Scandinavian house prices.
In the euro area, Sentix investor confidence, retail sales and ECB QE details are due for release today. Sentix has climbed to levels not seen since 2007 with a figure of 27.4 in May and we expect it to rise further to 28.1 in June. We estimate retail sales will show another monthly increase of 0.3% in April, as consumer confidence rose in April and Easter is likely to have supported higher retail sales. Finally, the ECB is due to release the monthly QE details, which will not least attract attention in Fixed Income markets (see page 2).
In Scandinavia, focus will be on house price statistics for Denmark and not least Norway. In Norway, Real Estate Norway's release may well show the first fall m/m since February last year. The combination of more restrictive bank lending practices and an increased supply of properties has brought a better balance in the housing market, including in Oslo. From a policy perspective, however, it is important to remember that Norges Bank anticipated a stabilisation in housing prices back in March, so a slight correction will primarily ease upward pressure on interest rates rather than add a downward pressure.
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