Today, focus in the euro area will be on the retail sales figures for July and the Sentix Investor Confidence. Retail sales increased 0.4% m/m in May, with a 0.0% m/m change in June. Post the Brexit vote, economic indicators have so far been fairly resilient. The German retail figures for July surprised on the upside with a 1.7% m/m increase in July from June. We expect an increase for the euro area in line with the German increase, confirming the economic resilience. Sentix rose to 4.2 in August and we expect the positive trend to continue with an increase to 4.7 in September, as positive risk sentiment is on the increase.
In the UK, focus today will be on the PMI service index. In July, the PMI service index fell sharply to 47.4, the lowest since the financial crisis, suggesting a significant economic slowdown. In line with other indicators, we estimate the index rebounded in August. We estimate it increased to 49.1.
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