Market Movers
There's not too much on the European agenda today apart from the continued focus on Greece. Bank of England has a policy meeting but is unlikely to make any changes. ECB's Liikanen and Mersch will speak today. After the sharp sell-off in the bond market yesterday it will be interesting to see if they repeat Draghi's fairly unconcerned message that volatility is to be expected or whether they try to calm down the markets.
We will be in wait- and-see mode for tomorrow's non-farm payrolls but the markets will have a few US data to chew on. Initial jobless claims rose slightly last week to 282k and are expected to be broadly flat at 278k. The claims data have trended lower since mid-March but seem to be stabilising at a historically low level.
US productivity growth for Q1 is expected to show another big decline as job growth was decent despite the negative GDP print. This will push up unit labour costs (wage growth adjusted for productivity growth) to a rise of around 6% q/q annualised. The series is very volatile but overall unit labour costs are currently above their long-term average pointing to increasing cost pressure on inflation.
Danish data in portfolio flows for April.
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