Market Movers
Global risk sentiment will be under pressure from the tension in the Middle East and sharp fall in stock markets in Asia overnight.
In the euro area, Italian and Spanish manufacturing and service PMIs are due today. The Italian figures have stabilised at levels not seen since 2011, suggesting GDP growth should strengthen. In Spain, PMIs undershot actual GDP growth in Q3 but the composite PMI new orders index, which is a good leading indicator for activity, improved in both October and November and suggests solid GDP growth of 0.8% q/q again in Q4.
In the US, the ISM indices for December are due to be released later Today. ISM manufacturing in November declined to 48.6, the lowest level since June 2009 (see Flash Comment: Weak ISM manufacturing in November puts Fed in difficult position , 1 December 2015). We think it will rebound back to 50.0 in December. We think ISM non-manufacturing will stay in the range 55-57 in coming months, suggesting further growth in the sectors outside manufacturing (mainly services).
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