Market Movers
Today it is time for the euro area HICP inflation numbers for October. After the drop back into deflation territory in September, we expect the figure to reverse back into inflation and forecast a rate of 0.1% y/y. Gasoline prices declined again in October and we forecast the energy price component to be broadly unchanged. Instead we look for an increase in core inflation to 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y in September due to both higher service and goods price inflation. Our forecasts are above consensus and after the higher-than-expected German numbers yesterday the risk might be skewed towards even higher numbers.
Fed's preferred measure for wages, the employment cost index, for Q3 will be published today. Consensus is looking for a rebound in wage growth to 0.6% q/q after the dip to 0.2% in Q2. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, PCE inflation, is also released. We expect core PCE to increase 0.2% m/m taking annual core inflation to 1.4%. We look for another monthly decline in headline inflation of -0.1% m/m and annual PCE inflation of 0.2% y/y. University of Michigan consumer confidence and Chicago PMI are due for release as well.
Norwegian labour market data and daily purchases in November of NOK by Norges Bank, see Scandi Markets.
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