In the euro area, the first inflation figures for March will be released today with the Spanish and German HICP inflation figures. We look for a decline in inflation in both countries reflecting lower core, energy and food price inflation. The decline in the volatile energy price inflation should follow as there is less support from the base effect and as the oil price has declined during March. Lower food commodity prices should eventually also result in lower consumer food price inflation after being lifted temporarily by cold weather in the winter months. Finally, the lower core inflation reflects the early timing of Easter last year, causing low inflation in the volatile package holidays prices in March this year.
In the US, a number of Fed members including Kaplan (voter, dovish), Dudley (voter, dovish), Williams (non-voter, neutral) and Mester (non-voter, hawkish) are scheduled to speak. Recently, the speeches from Fed members have not provided much new information as the communication has been that the Fed is on track to deliver the expected three rate hikes this year. We expect a continuation of this stance. Hence, the speeches should not moves markets considerably today.
In Scandi markets, focus will be on Norwegian retail sales, which should point to moderate growth in private consumption in Q1.
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