Market movers today
Several interesting inflation figures due out today. First, the euro area will release preliminary inflation for June. Given the German, Italian and Spanish figures (and our estimate that French HICP inflation will have declined by 0.1pp) euro area inflation should be down by 0.14pp from 1.40% y/y in May. Hence, we estimate it will round up to 1.3%. Note that package tours have a very low weight in French HICP, so the upside risk is limited.
Another interesting inflation print today will be the core PCE from the US. Core inflation has surprised on the downside recently and moved lower since February, reversing the upward trend seen in 2016. The print today will give more info on how much of this is driven by transitory factors and what is due to softer underlying price pressure.
Also in the US, the Chicago PMI has been very strong recently and not shown the same decline as in the ISM and some regional surveys. We doubt that Chicago PMI can continue to buck the trend of softer data and look for a decline today.
In the Scandi sphere, focus turns to Norwegian data for retail sales, unemployment and credit growth. See page 2 for our Scandi overview.
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