Market Movers
Focus still on Greece. Opinion polls released ahead of the referendum on Sunday are at the centre of attention together with the ongoing battle between the 'yes' and 'no' camp. Greece has already stated that it will miss the IMF payment today, which effectively closes its access to further IMF funding until the arrear is cleared.
In terms of data, we will get euro-area HICP inflation, which has risen for four months in a row but should decline in June. Consensus is for a decline to 0.2% y/y from 0.3% y/y in May but the German flash HICP declined 0.6pp implying the expectations have likely been lowered. We stick to our forecast of a decline to 0.2% y/y but revise our core inflation forecast down to 0.7% y/y from 0.9% y/y in May. Markets will likely pay most attention to core inflation after the jump in May and as the ECB focuses on trends in inflation.
We will also receive the US Conference Board measure of consumer confidence. We expect a significant increase to 97.5 but this will still leave the survey at a lower level than in the first few months of the year, when consumer confidence was boosted by the rapid decline in gasoline prices.
A light Scandi calendar today.
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