Market Movers
The US markets are closed today ahead of July 4 and with only tier-2 data releases in the calendar, Greece is likely to be at the centre of attention ahead of the referendum on Sunday.
In terms of data, euro-area retail sales figures for May will give more information about how consumers have reacted to the higher oil price. Overall, we expect slower growth in private consumption in Q2 compared with Q1, when the very low oil price was a significant tailwind. On the other hand, higher employment growth will continue to support consumer spending. We expect a decline in retail sales of 0.4% m/m after it rose 0.7% m/m in April.
We will also receive the first releases of UK, Spanish and Italian service PMI. The UK service PMI has for some time been elevated compared with actual growth in the service sector. Service PMI declined 3 index points from April to May but we estimate service PMI was unchanged at 56.5 in June as consumers' purchasing power is boosted by increasing real wage growth. In Italy, the PMIs have improved and suggest GDP growth continued to strengthen in Q2 after being 0.3% q/q in Q1. In Spain, the recovery remains on track and we expect the service PMI to signal even stronger economic activity.
Swedish data and Riksbank reflections.
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