Final EU Service PMI data for July is due out today (10:00 CET). Also due out are Spanish (9:15 CET) and Italian Service PMIs (9:45 CET). Given the weakness seen particularly in the Spanish manufacturing PMI on Monday, falling to the lowest level since 2013, we look for both the Italian and Spanish Service PMIs to tick lower, to 51.0 and 55.0, respectively.
Final UK service PMI (10:30 CET) could draw more attention than usual, given that Monday's final manufacturing figures saw a further downward revision of 0.9 index points from the flash estimate, increasing the overall decline from the final June reading to 4.2 points. While we look for a final service reading of 47.4 in line with the flash estimate, post-referendum volatility puts the risk on the downside, in our view.
We expect EU retail sales data (11:00 CET) to fall 0.2% m/m in June (consensus: 0.0%), as the higher oil price in Q2 is likely to have been a headwind to private consumption (see Euro area: higher inflation, activity data are pre-Brexit for details).
In Scandi markets, Swedish services PMI (8:30 CET) and Norwegian house price data (11:00 CET) are the key data releases today.
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