Market Movers
German HICP inflation, which is released ahead of the euro area figure tomorrow, should be dragged down by the oil price decline and we expect it to reach -0.3% y/y in September. The pressure on Draghi for further easing has intensified lately and should increase further on indications that euro area inflation is falling back into deflationary territory (see Euro Area Deflation Monitor) .
We expect the US Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to decline to 95.0 in September from an elevated 101.5, thereby mirroring the decline in the University of Michigan's confidence measure. Important will be the labour market differential (jobs plentiful less jobs hard to get), which increased an impressive 7.5 points in August.
Norwegian retail sales are released today and will provide an important clue on whether private consumption continues to hold up. The Danish government 2016 budget proposal is presented at 10:00 CET. See Scandi markets, page 2.
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