Euro-area HICP inflation for April is due for release and we expect a negative print of -0.1% y/y, slightly lower than in March when it was 0.0%. Core inflation should drop to 0.8% from 1.0% last, when it was supported by the early timing of Easter. The low core inflation also reflects headwind from the stronger euro, a lagged indirect impact from the low oil price and very subdued wage pressure.
Euro-area GDP growth for Q1 is also due and we expect growth to come in at 0.3% q/q in line with the pace in H2 15. Private consumption has probably been the main driver of growth as suggested by the solid retail sales. We expect investments were supported by progress in construction, whereas financial market turmoil and global growth weakness should have added uncertainty. We also get data for the euro-area unemployment rate for March and we expect the declining tendency has continued.
In the US, PCE prices for March are due and, in line with the CPI figures, we expect to see some reversion of the increases in the more volatile components. We expect PCE core rose 0.1% m/m in March implying a fall in the core inflation rate to 1.5% from 1.7%. That said, yesterday's strong quarterly PCE figures suggest upside risks to this call.
We and consensus expect unchanged rates from the Russian central bank today.
Norwegian releases in focus, see Scandi Markets.
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