Focus today on digesting the FOMC statement and the Bank of Japan.
In the UK, everything continues to be driven by the upcoming EU in/out referendum. Today, chancellor Osborne is questioned by the House of Commons Treasury Committee about the cost/benefit of EU membership. In a recent report the Treasury argued that UK GDP could be between 3.5% and 7% lower after 15 years, if the UK leaves the EU.
The US will see the first estimate of GDP growth in Q1 and we expect this to confirm that activity slowed in Q1 as most indicators have shown. We look for growth of a mere 0.7% q/q (ar) as private consumption has slowed and investments have been weak. Our main scenario is that growth will rebound in Q2 and Q3, as we expect consumption growth to pick up again because it has been relatively subdued in Q1 despite high consumer confidence and increasing employment.
Focus on Norwegian releases, see Scandi Markets.
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