Market movers today
The main event today is the meeting between UK PM Theresa May and US President Donald Trump . In our view, it is likely the two will say that the UK and US will 'renew their special relationship' and 'lead together again'.
On the data front, we get the first estimate of US GDP growth for Q4 16 . We estimate GDP growth was 2.3% q/q AR driven mainly by private consumption. Business investments seem to have bottomed out when looking at core capex orders and we expect a positive contribution to growth in Q4. Capex orders for December are also released today and should have increased. Looking ahead, we expect capex orders to move higher on the back of higher oil prices, which supports oil investments and the rebound in manufacturing.
US PCE core inflation in Q4 will give us the December inflation rate implicitly . Based on the CPI data released last week, we estimate PCE core prices rose 0.2% m/m in December, corresponding to a quarterly print of 1.4 q/q AR in Q4, down from 1.7% in Q3.
In the euro area, money supply and loan growth figures for December are due for release . Loan growth to the private sector has improved to just below 2.0% y/y and the ECB's latest bank lending survey showed that demand for loans should continue to support growth in lending to both households and enterprises but credit standards for loans to enterprises tightened somewhat, driven by lower willingness to tolerate risk mainly in the Netherlands.
In Scandinavia , Swedish business, consumer confidence and retail sales figures are due for release. For more info, see Scandi markets on page 2.
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