We have a relatively light calendar today, with only a few data releases in store.The aftermath of the French elections is likely to fade as focus shifts towards the ECB monetary policy meeting tomorrow.
In Sweden, April business and consumer confidence are due out. In general, especially business confidence has been very upbeat recently, not least after the Trump victory, and we might see some moderation of that going forward. Nevertheless, the macro situation in Sweden remains solid for the most part.
Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. We expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep its monetary policy unchanged at its policy meeting ending early Thursday morning. This means that the BoJ will maintain its QQE and YCC with a target for the 10-year Japanese government bond yield of around 0%. This should not be a source of significant price action as this view is widely expected in the market. We still see USD/JPY in the 108-112 range in the near term.
Rate decision in Turkey. Turkey's central bank (TCMB) is due to announce its monetary policy decision. We expect the TCMB to keep its benchmark repo rate at 8.00%, avoiding extra pressure on the banking and corporate sector as TRY has stabilised. Yet, as inflation remains in the double-digit territory, we expect the late liquidity lending rate to be hiked by 25bp to 12.00%. Consensus median has the rate staying unchanged.
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