Market Movers Today
It will be a fairly thin data calendar today, where the main release will be German ifo expectations. The decline in the German manufacturing PMI suggests the ifo expectations index will decline and, in our view, there is downside risk to consensus expectations. Although the figure is expected to remain at an elevated level, a continued downward trend could support a softer tone from the ECB following its renewed focus on growth.
US Conference Board consumer confidence is due for release in the afternoon. The figure is expected to decline in line with other indicators for consumer confidence but to stay at a high level. Overall, the optimism expressed in the survey indicators after Trump's victory is likely to continue to fade in coming months.
Please note we have published our FOMC preview ahead of the meeting on Wednesday. We expect the Fed to maintain the Fed funds target range and wait until September to make an announcement on 'quantitative tightening'. See FOMC Preview - No major changes , 24 July 2017.
In the Scandies, the quarterly SSB Industrial Confidence release in Norway is due. In Q1, the manufacturing index returned to positive territory for the first time since Q3 14. We expect a further rise today, which would be in line with the signals from, e.g. the manufacturing PMIs, hinting at a re-acceleration in manufacturing production in 2017. In Sweden, the monthly PPI release will give us more insight into the inflation dynamics, which are important for the Riksbank.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below: