In the euro area, we get M3 money supply and bank lending figures. Growth in M3 has started to slow a bit in the past months, which might indicate that economic growth will slow in the latter part of H2 16. The bank lending figures could also attract some attention in light of the current focus on bank credit. We saw some weakness in lending growth in December but as the figure can be quite volatile, we suggest awaiting this number before drawing any conclusions.
In the UK, we do not expect any revisions to overall GDP growth in Q4 in the second release to be released today, i.e. we expect an unchanged print of 0.5% q/q. However, it is the first time the subcomponents from the expenditure side are published and we expect them to show that private consumption was still the main growth driver.
In the US, we will get January data on durable goods orders. The weakness in durable goods demand has been a major factor behind the downturn in the US manufacturing sector and a turn in demand would be very much welcomed.
St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks today. Last week he made a very dovish impression, stating that he thinks it is unwise to proceed with the hiking cycle when inflation expectations continue to decline.
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