Market movers today
Euro zone finance ministers are expected to hold a conference call this afternoon to weigh the delayed economic programme from the Greek government that is now scheduled to be released this morning. If the list proves insufficient, ministers will likely be called for a meeting in Brussels in an attempt to iron out the differences. Euro final inflation data is expected to be unrevised with headline inflation at -0.6% y/y and core inflation at 0.6% y/y. ECB's Mario Draghi speaks in Frankfurt.
Focus will be on Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony at 16:00 CET in the Banking Committee of the Senate. Following dovish minutes but hawkish comments from Fed members after the latest strong employment report, Yellen's speech is important. We believe she will sound a bit hawkish compared to the latest minutes and thus put upward pressure on yields and the USD. Focus will be on any description of triggers for the first hike and hints of whether the Fed is likely to remove the patience language at the next meeting. She may want to keep as much flexibility as possible, though, and await more data before taking a stand on whether patience has to go at the March meeting. She may mention, however, that if the labour market continues to develop stronger than the Fed has projected, patience is likely to be removed. Her comments are important as to whether she signals the Fed will move pre-emptively before wage growth has increased or wants to wait until wage growth has clearly risen.
In the US data for consumer confidence are expected to slip a bit as the boost from the lower oil price may fade. US Markit service PMI and Shiller house prices are also due for release.
In Scandinavia focus remains on the Danish central bank after the DKK continued to weaken yesterday.
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