Market movers today
The Eurogroup meeting starts today and focus will be on Greece. The parties are still some way from reaching an agreement and we do not expect a solution to the Greek issue at the current meeting. Negotiations will continue at the Eurogroup meeting on 11 May - the day before the next large payment to the IMF is due (for more see Grexit - what if? Don't expect any solution before the summer crunch time , 22 April 2015).
German Ifo expectations are expected to decline a bit as it has reached a rather high level. The index already points to strong GDP growth and even if the Ifo expectations decline a little, this would still suggest a solid expansion in the German economy in the first half of 2015.
We look for a rebound in US durable goods orders for March. In particular data on the key non-defence durable goods orders ex. aircraft have been extraordinarily weak lately with the average growth rate over the past three months at -8% annualised. We expect part of the weakness to have been caused by temporary factors and in line with consensus expect a rebound.
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