In the US, the Markit PMI manufacturing for January will give us some insight into how manufacturing has performed in the first month of the new year. The PMI index is not followed nearly as closely as the ISM index by the markets. However, the divergence between US manufacturing and services sector has attracted a lot of attention and the Markit PMI manufacturing index has not painted the same negative picture as ISM manufacturing in recent months.
In the euro area, the January preliminary PMI figures for France, Germany and the euro area are due today. We expect the improving trend in the euro area to continue and look for an increase both in manufacturing and service PMIs. Regionally, we expect Germany to be the pulling force and improve the most, while France is set to lag a bit behind still.
In the UK, retail sales (excluding auto and fuel) are expected to decline 0.3% m/m in December following an unexpected large increase of 1.7% m/m in November. A decline of 0.3% m/m will result in an annual increase of 3.5% y/y in December.
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