Today's main event is the ECB meeting. We expect no new announcements from the ECB but believe focus will be on hints about a potential extension of QE purchases, which we expect to be announced at the December meeting. In our view, President Mario Draghi is very likely to be asked questions about the latest debate on QE tapering but we expect him to repeat that the ECB's focus is on full implementation of QE purchases. Any comments about the committee's work on changing the ECB's self-imposed QE restrictions will also be followed closely but we do not expect any announcement before a decision on whether or not to extend QE purchases beyond March next year. For more details see ECB preview: too early to discuss tapering , 14 October.
In the US, initial jobless claims are due out, which continue to be very low - currently at the lowest level since the 70s - indicating a healthy labour market. However, looking at the unemployment and underemployment rates, which have moved sideways for some time, suggests there is more slack left in the labour market than previously thought.
In the UK, retail sales data for September are due out. While retail sales are very volatile from month to month, it will be the last major release before the first estimate of GDP growth in Q3 is due next week.
Swedish unemployment data is due at 09:30 CEST, see page 2.
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