Market Movers
The main event today is the extraordinary Eurogroup finance minister meeting on Greece in Brussels scheduled to start at 15:00 CET. Greece's current bailout programme is set to expire on 28 February and it is now close to a hard deadline because any extension or modification to the programme would need time to be approved by some of the national parliaments. Despite the Greek government's acceptance of an extension to the existing programme, its commitments to the conditions entailed have been weak. Hence, the negotiations are set to be tough and lengthy and most likely there will not be an agreement before markets close today in Europe.
In the euro area, the main event will be the release of euro area flash PMI for February at 10:00 CET starting with France and Germany at 9:00 CET and 9:30 CET respectively. We expect the composite PMI to improve to 53.0 from a final reading of 52.6 in January. This will be the third month in a row with an improvement in the composite PMI and, if our estimate proves correct, in February it will be at its highest level since July last year.
In the UK, retail sales for January will be released at 10:30 CET. Retail sales can be volatile but are nonetheless expected to show a 5.9% y/y gain underscoring that private consumption remains solid in the UK.
In Scandinavia, the main release today is the NIER business and consumer confidence survey in Sweden.
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