Today, focus will be on the US labour market report for August, which will be important for the Fed's rate decision but it is less interesting with ISM manufacturing below 50 (see more below). We expect job growth of 175,000 in August. This is below the prints of the past two months but still above the amount needed for labour market slack to come down. Earlier this week, the ADP employment report was decent and although it is not always the best indicator for the official job report, it does point to very steady ADP employment growth. Related to this, Janet Yellen has indicated that when the Fed evaluates the labour market, it focuses on the 3M average for job growth. Additionally, we estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% m/m in August in line with the recent trend, implying an annual growth rate of 2.5%.We estimate the unemployment rate declined to 4.8% in August, but it is a close call between 4.9% and 4.8%.
In Scandi markets, focus is on Norwegian unemployment data (NAV) for August, see more on page 2.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below