Today, attention will be on UK economic figures with the release of the labour market report for August. The economy has been quite resilient to the Brexit uncertainties so far, hence, we do not expect a big impact on the labour market. The question is whether this will change soon, as we see a risk that business confidence and hence growth may take a hit from Theresa May's harsh stance on Brexit. We estimate the unemployment rate (3M average) and annual growth in average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) were unchanged at 4.9% and 2.1%, respectively.
In the US, focus is on housing market figures with housing starts and building permits due for release. The gradual recovery in the housing market has been paused for some time and although consensus is for increases in both figures, it should not change the recent trend.
There are also some Fed speeches to follow with Williams (non-voter, neutral) due to speak in the afternoon and Kaplan (non-voter, dovish) set to deliver a speech in the evening. The Fed is moreover set to release its Beige Book tonight.
In the night, the third and last US presidential debate is scheduled. Yesterday, the NY Times Presidential Forecast Update showed that Hillary Clinton has a 91% chance of winning the election - the highest so far. For more on the status in the national pools, see US election monitor: Clinton extends her lead but don't rule out a Trump comeback yet , 14 October.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below