U.S. housing starts and permits.
Following the strong rise in the NAHB housing index yesterday, it seems the somewhat softer housing activity data are behind us. Housing starts are likely to jump after a big drop in April. Permits, on the other hand, are expected to fall slightly after a big rise in April.
We expect U.S. core CPI to rise 0.1% m/m in May, slightly lower than the consensus estimate of 0.2% m/m. Inflation is low in the U.S. at the moment, giving the Fed more room to wait for improvement in employment before it starts tapering.
The German ZEW index will be the main data release in Europe. We look for a rise in sentiment to 41 in June from 36.4. This is slightly higher than consensus at 38.0.
U.K. inflation is expected to rise to 2.6% from 2.4%.
Selected market news
Final industrial production numbers out of Japan showed a slightly lower month-on-month rise of 0.9% in April taking the year-on-year growth rate to -3.4%. Leading indicators are giving strong activity signals at the moment, suggesting an overall improvement in the Japanese economy following the introduction of Abenomics. Stock markets are mixed in Asia this morning, following a decent close in the U.S.
U.S. treasuries posted small long-end losses yesterday with the 10-year yield trading around 2.18% overnight after a spike in the NAHB housing market index to 52 – the first reading above 50 since early 2006. Another source of selling was a Financial Times article ‘Fed likely to signal tapering move is close’, arguing that the strength of the economy will soon justify reduced QE.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s second four-year period ends January 31. President Obama yesterday suggested that this will indeed be Bernanke’s last period by saying that ‘he’s already stayed a lot longer than he wanted or he was supposed to’. Janet Yellen is still seen as the most likely candidate to take over.
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