In the UK the focus is on the ILO unemployment rate and the weekly earnings figures, which have been rising in recent months. In our view, future wage growth will be a key determinant of when the MPC hikes and we still see a rate hike in 2015 as very likely. Related to that, the minutes from the February MPC meeting will be released today.
In the US, the minutes from January FOMC meeting will be released today. There has been a lot of speculation as to why the FOMC chose to include a reference to 'international developments' in its statement (see Flash Comment: FOMC meeting - more patience , 28 January) and we believe the minutes are likely to give us some answers.
US housing starts and building permits are also due for release. In general, we expect the gradual improvement in the housing market to continue this year, with a pickup in the pace of construction activity.
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