Today we get the minutes from the FOMC meeting of 26-27 January. This will give us a broader insight into the different views of the FOMC members. It could attract some attention as Yellen's testimony was more or less just a repetition of the January FOMC statement. However, since the meeting, uncertainty in financial markets and the risk of a systemic crisis have both increased which, in our view, should keep the Fed on hold until the September meeting. See also Research US: Fed on hold - uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined , 12 February 2016.
US manufacturing production and capacity utilisation for January are due today and will also attract attention given the current weakness in manufacturing indicators like ISM. Finally, housing starts and permits are due for release.
The UK labour market report for December is likely to show that the market continued to tighten. We forecast that the unemployment rate (3M) fell to 5.0% from 5.1%. We estimate that the annual growth rate in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses (3M) (AWE) was unchanged at 1.9% y/y. Although AWE is quite volatile by nature, we think this was the bottom and expect the series to trend up again.
Inflation expectations from Sweden are due out but are probably becoming less relevant. Government bond auctions will be held today in Sweden, Norway and Denmark.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below