Market movers today
In Germany we expect the ZEW indicator to have improved markedly to 64.0 in February from 48.4 in January. Our call is substantially above consensus and if we are right, this will be the highest level for ZEW expectations since February 2006 underscoring that the German growth engine is again picking up steam.
UK CPI is expected to have eased slightly to 0.4% y/y in January from 0.5% y/y on the back of lower gasoline prices. Core inflation is expected to have picked up slightly, which should ease deflation fears.
In the US the main release is the NAHB housing market index that will give us the first early indication of the strength of the US housing market in February.The Swedish Riksbank's statement that it is now willing to change policy any time, and not just at regular meetings, puts more focus on today's Swedish CPI numbers. We expect an unusually sharp fall in prices compared to December 2014 (-1.2% mom for CPI and -1.1% mom for CPIF) and see downside risks to SEK near term.
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