Market Movers
US September industrial production is expected to fall 0.2% m/m, following the 0.4% decline in August. This would be in line with the manufacturing survey data, which have generally shown that activity remained weak.
US University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment for October is released today. The final September release was revised 1.5pt higher from the flash reading to 87.2 and today's number is expected at 89.0. However, that would still put it 2.9pt below August's reading, potentially reflecting that US consumers have become more cautious following the recent market turmoil.
Euro area final CPI figures are expected to confirm that the headline figure slipped back into negative territory in September (at -0.1% y/y), while core is expected to remain at 0.9% y/y. Hence, pressure for further ECB easing is likely to remain, even as market-based inflation measures have increased slightly (5y5y break-evens are trading around 1.65%, having troughed at 1.56% in late-September).
Euro area trade balance data for August is expected to decline, in line with the weak German data seen last week.
Spain's 'Baa2' sovereign debt rating may be revised today by Moody's. Following the surprise upgrade by S&P last week to 'BBB+', we believe an upgrade is likely, as Spain is on positive outlook by Moody's. However, there is also the possibility that Moody's remains on hold until after the general election on 20 December.
Vote in the Greek parliament on reforms needed to unlock the first EUR2bn sub-tranche of funding from the recent EUR86bn bail-out package will take place tonight.
There are no data-releases in Scandinavia today.
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