Market movers today
In the euro area we expect higher PMI figures, which would be in line with the increase in the business climate indicator. Current survey data indicate that Germany is regaining momentum, whereas France and Italy are lagging behind. Added to this, the German PMI order-inventory balance has almost rebounded, suggesting firms no longer need to work off high inventories.
The German ZEW expectations should also rise further after bottoming in October. The Sentix expectations, which are a good leading indicator for ZEW expectations, have increased to the highest level since March 2014. Although this survey of financial analysts is criticised much, it has been very good at determining shifts in the business cycle.
In the US, Markit manufacturing PMI should increase and close some of the gap to the very high level of the ISM. An increase in the PMI would also suggest the impressive industrial production in November was not just a one-off. US housing starts and building permits are also due for release today.
In the Scandi markets focus will be on the Riksbank meeting. We expect the Riksbank to lower its growth and inflation forecast and to postpone the date for the first rate hike (currently in Q2 16). Forward guidance is the Riksbank's first line of defence.
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