Market movers today
In the UK we will get more information about economic development in Q1 as March figures for construction output are released. We do not believe that the numbers will lead to a revision of the first estimate of GDP growth in Q1 (0.3% q/q).
The US manufacturing sector is struggling with a stronger USD and weak global demand, which has weighed on production recently. We expect somewhat better growth in April and look for manufacturing production growth of 0.3% m/m. A stronger pace of private consumption is key to our outlook for US growth this year. We expect consumers to spend some of their savings from Q1 in coming months as the improvement in the labour market continues and consumer sentiment remains high. We expect an increase in the May preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment to 97.0, which is only topped by the January release in the current cycle.
It is Friday and that means potential rating action with Ireland (Moody's), Italy (S&P), the Netherlands (Fitch) and Portugal (DBRS) up for potential review. Ireland is the most interesting and the most likely candidate for a rating change. In our view the requirement for an upgrade to 'A-level' has been fulfilled. Growth remains very strong with the Irish Ministry of Finance recently lifting the 2015 forecast to 4.0% and the projection running to 2019 above 3%. Debt is falling sharply, which could be supported further by the re-privatisation of a share of AIB by the end of this year. Irish fundamentals will outshine soft core Belgium already this year and debt will drop below the French level within a couple of years. The current 'Grexit' risk could lead Moody's to postpone an upgrade until the autumn and to only lift the outlook to 'positive' tonight. We do not expect other changes in rating or outlook tonight.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below