In the UK, it is time for the BoE's January meeting. As expected, the BoE took a dovish stance at the December meeting due to a combination of a poor risk environment and the lower oil price, which has lowered the inflation outlook. Not much has changed. The oil price is still dropping, risk appetite is still poor and activity data have been weak. The pressure from the strong GBP, however, has eased as it has weakened significantly. Overall, we expect the Bank Rate, the stock of purchased assets and the vote count to be exactly the same as in December. We expect the first BoE hike in Q2 16 (probably in May) but the recent developments, both economically and in the financial markets, mean that the BoE is not in a hurry to follow the Fed's lift-off despite strong developments in the labour market, in our view.
In Germany, real GDP growth in 2015 is due for release, which will implicitly give us an idea of how the German economy performed in Q4 15.
We expect the Polish central bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.50% at today's meeting.
Fed's Bullard (voter, hawkish) is speaking today.
December CPI- and CPIF data are released in Sweden. Our forecast (see calendar) is 0.1 ppt below the market average and 0.2 ppt below the Riksbank's projection. For more details see Scandi Markets.
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