Market Movers
We expect euro-area GDP growth for Q4 to surprise on the upside with an increase of 0.4% q/q from 0.2% in Q3. We will not get details on sub-components but we expect the major driver to be private consumption, which is boosted by the sharp decline in the oil price, while lower unemployment and improved consumer confidence are also supportive. Additionally, the weakening of the EUR is positive for the competitiveness of euro-area firms and thus exports. Regarding German GDP growth, we already had an estimate for 2014 from which one can back out an implicit estimate for Q4 to the range of 0.4%-0.5% q/q up from the 0.1% q/q in Q3. France is expected to have had low but positive growth, while Italy is expected to have moved out of recession, but this is a close call.
In the US improved labour market and real income conditions are also reflected in consumer sentiment. Sentiment has risen dramatically over the past months and is now back at pre-recession levels. The preliminary release of University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence will give an indication of whether this improvement continued in February. We expect a further but modest increase to 98.4 from 98.1.
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