Market movers today
With a thin global calendar, focus is on Scandinavia inflation with the release of the Danish and Norwegian figures for April. The Danish figure should be unchanged but the Norwegian print is more interesting after weak inflation in recent months has prompted markets to shift the spotlight from oil and growth to inflation. We estimate core inflation climbed to 1.9% y/y, well below Norges Bank's projections in its last monetary policy report (2.1%) but this could still allay some of the fears that inflation will fall far enough to trigger further rate cuts.
In Sweden, the Riksbank minutes from the last monetary policy meeting will be released. The minutes will be followed closely as they cover the meeting when the Riksbank surprisingly decided to extend the QE programme. The Swedish Prospera inflation expectations are also due for release today.
ECB president Draghi is scheduled to speak in the Dutch parliament in the afternoon and focus will be on whether the latest jump in core inflation as well as Macron winning the French presidency have changed the ECB's monetary policy stance. In our view, the elimination of the Frexit risk has paved the way for a more hawkish communication at the next ECB meeting in June, but regarding the inflation outlook, we expect the ECB to await more information in judging whether the latest rise is due to the timing of Easter or higher underlying price pressure, see Flash Comment: Core inflation surprised on the upside but not the first sign of higher underlying price pressure , 2 May.
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