In the euro area, manufacturing PMIs for Spain and Italy will be released today. The flash estimate for the euro area showed a slight decline in manufacturing PMI to 51.8 from 52.0 but overall the PMIs indicate that the euro area is on a steady growth path in Q3. As the French and German manufacturing PMI both saw a slight decline in line with the euro area PMI, we expect a very similar small decline in the Italian and Spanish manufacturing PMI.
Also, look out for the PMI manufacturing index for the UK although the service sector remains the most important sector for the UK economy.
In the US, ISM manufacturing index data for August is due out. We look for a decline to 51.8 in August, due to the decline in the preliminary Markit PMI manufacturing and weak regional indices. We think the manufacturing cycle has turned since the lows of early 2016 but also that an ISM manufacturing index above 52 is probably too high in the current situation.
In the Scandies, Norwegian and Swedish PMIs are also due for release. Also, retail sales data for July in Norway are due.
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