Today is the big manufacturing PMI day in Europe. On the back of the fall in the euro area PMI figures last week, the direction of change for Spain and Italy is already set and we expect to see a solid decline for both countries. We also get euro area unemployment figures where we expect the downward tendency to continue.
This afternoon ECB's Lautenschlaeger speaks in New York. ECB speeches will continue to get a lot of attention going into the 10 March ECB meeting as markets look for hints as to how the central bank can ease policy further amid collapsing inflation expectations and realised inflation prints (see Euro area core inflation fell in February , 29 February).
We expect the UK manufacturing PMI to show a small decline, suggesting that the economy might slow down somewhat in the coming quarters. We do, however, expect levels to remain relatively high and well above 50, thus pointing to positive growth.
In the US ISM manufacturing is due and we estimate the index increased to 48.6 (from 48.2). As wider credit spreads and tighter financial conditions will be a negative for the manufacturing sector (which is still struggling with a strong USD, weak manufacturing globally and low oil investments), we expect ISM manufacturing to be suppressed over coming months. Today we will also get the final manufacturing PMI print for February. Finally, today is 'Super Tuesday' in the primary elections.
In the Scandis we will get manufacturing PMI releases in Norway and Sweden. In Denmark the monthly FX reserves figure from Nationalbanken will catch attention. See Scandi Markets.
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