We estimate non-farm payrolls increased 220,000 in March, slightly above the current consensus of 210,000. Job growth is mainly driven by private service payrolls, which we estimate increased 180,000 in March down from a high of 245,000 in February. Signals for the labour market have been mixed lately. Jobless claims data continue to look solid, with initial claims back at cycle lows. On the other hand, the ISM non-manufacturing index declined (though marginally) for the fourth consecutive month to 53.4 in February and the employment sub-index declined to 49.7, raising downside risks to employment growth in the service sector. We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9 % in March.
In the US, one should also keep an eye on the ISM manufacturing index in March. As the regional indices were strong on a broad scale in March, we see this as a sign that the manufacturing sector has rebounded and estimate ISM manufacturing increased to 50.9 in March from 49.5 in February.
In Scandi markets, the focus today will be on the release of the manufacturing PMIs in Norway and Sweden as well as the release of the credit indicator in Norway. Also, the Swedish market will digest the wage deal agreed late yesterday.
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