In Sweden, the week ahead contains a few very interesting sets of data. First and foremost, we will study December industrial data (Thursday at 09:30 CET) closely. We will also receive PMI data (Monday at 09:30 CET), to which we ourselves do not pay much heed but, as it is a driver of financial market volatility, we will nonetheless take a look at it.
We take a closer look at inflation and wage expectations in Sweden in respect of the Riksbank.
Based on leading indicators such as the PMI and the business tendency survey, we therefore expect Norwegian industrial production to fall 0.3% m/m in December.
Also coming up during the week is the February PMI for Norway. Although this indicator has proved volatile month on month, it has shown good covariance with other industrial indicators. We expect the PMI to fall further to 48.5 in February, indicating that the decline in industrial activity has accelerated heading into 2015.
Elsewhere, it is worth keeping an eye on the figures for housing prices in Norway out on Wednesday. There have been reports of a very busy market in January, which could mean that the interest rate cuts have ushered in a new air of optimism in the household sector.
In the section covering Denmark, we take a closer look at implications of suspension of DGB issuance in 2015. We argue that DGBs will perform strongly and that investors will turn to the mortgage bonds next.
Most important key event in Denmark will be the FX reserves data published on Tuesday. They will show the amount of FX intervention that the Danish central bank conducted in January.
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