The Riksbank minutes from the February policy meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday, will probably be the event in Sweden attracting most market attention. Fourth-quarter GDP data are among the figures that are due to be released next week (we expect 0.6% q/q and 1.6% y/y).
The Swedish National Debt Office last week significantly raised its forecast for the borrowing requirement this year and next.
In Norway, the coming week's most interesting release will be the NAV jobless data. We expect gross unemployment to climb slightly less quickly, by around 300 people m/m, which would point to growth being below trend in Q1 but less dramatically than expected. We also estimate LFS unemployment was unchanged at 3.7% in December (November to February). We estimate that growth in retail sales slowed to 0.3% m/m in January after a strong close to 2014.
Finally, we expect Norges Bank to buy kroner for the oil fund at a daily rate of NOK700m.
In Denmark, the central bank is due to release its latest securities statistics and figures for foreign portfolio investments, which will tell us more about what was behind the significant influx of currency into Denmark in January, when the foreign exchange reserves ballooned by DKK106bn.
On Friday, we saw for the first time since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) abolished the floor below EUR/CHF a significant move higher in EUR/DKK and the cross moved above 7.46, which caused a lot of nervousness and led to underperformance in the Danish fixed income markets. However, we do not believe that Friday's move higher in EUR/DKK reflects increased likelihood of a near-term rate hike from Danmarks Nationalbank (DN). However, the move higher implies a more two-sided risk in EUR/DKK.
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