Daily Technical Report: Major And Cross Currencies - June 3, 2013

EUR/USD - Weekly Report

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On a daily basis, we notice stability above 23.6% correction of the descending wave starting from 1.3711 levels towards the bottom at 1.2477. This correctional level resides at 1.2970 levels. The pair has also stabilized above key support level of the bullish wave and above Linear Regression Indicators. Trading above 1.2880 will be considered positive this week, while stability above 1.2945 is more positive. Stochastic reflects negative momentum signals, but we will ignore them unless the aforementioned support levels 1.2945 and 1.2880 are broken.

The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1.2725, and key resistance at 1.3225.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.2560 as far as areas of 1.3270 remains intact.
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GBP/USD
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The GBP/USD moved to the upside last week, and is currently stabilizing close to 38.2% correction at 1.5235 and Linear Regression Indicator 55. Stochastic offers overbought signals, and the RSI is entering a sideways range close to 50; these signals could cause some bearish correction. As far as areas of 1.5110 hold the possibility of extension, the upside correction is valid during this week to test 1.5310 and 1.5380 respectively. Breaking 1.5110 levels might fail the bullish correction, and trigger a new descending wave.

The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.4995, and key resistance at 1.5480.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, as far as areas of 1.5610 remain intact targeting 1.4920.
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USD/JPY
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The bearish correction brought the USD/JPY pair closer to 99.85 levels, but negative signals are still dominate, with negativity on Linear Regression Indicators and RSI trading below 50. Trading below 102.50 is negative, while stability below 101.70 adds to bearish pressures, likely to test 99.85 levels. A break could extend the correctional downside move towards key support of the medium-term ascending channel.

The trading range for this week is among key support at 98.45, and key resistance at 103.45.

The general trend over short term basis is to the upside as far as areas of 97.00 remain intact, targeting 105.60.
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USD/CHF
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This week’s trading kick-started above 50% correction of CD Leg of the bearish harmonic Butterfly Pattern. The pair is stable below 38.2% correction, which is significant according to harmonic analysis residing at 0.9610 levels. Trading below 0.9610 will extend the downside move toward the second target of the suggested harmonic Butterfly Pattern represented in 61.8% correction at 0.9470. Breaking the aforementioned level might extend bearishness to retest the key resistance level that was breached before, and perhaps 78.6% correction at 0.9370 levels.

The trading range for this week is among key support at 0.9310 and key resistance at 0.9775.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, stable at levels 0.9775 targeting 0.8860.
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USD/CAD
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The pair rebounded to the upside during last Friday’s trading session, and benefited from stabilizing above Linear Regression Indicators and 1.0270 levels. Stability above 1.0270 forces us to hold on to our positive expectations, whereas stability above it might extend bullishness in an attempt to breach 1.0430 levels, eyeing the key resistance of the ascending channel.

The trading range for this week is between the key support at 1.0200, and the key resistance at 1.0540.

The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, with steady daily closing above levels 0.9800 targeting 1.0485.
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AUD/USD
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The AUD/USD breached the upper line of the bearish channel but, simultaneously, we find in trading within a semi-sideways technical setup that makes it difficult to suggest an upside trend. Stability between 0.9535 and 0.9700 requires us to stand neutral as the pair is steady above linear regression indicators which are bearishly biased so far. On a negative note, breaking and settling below 0.9535 is necessary to boost the outlook for the continuation of the downtrend.

**Trading range expected this week is between the key support at 0.9365, and the key resistance 0.9860.

**Short-term trend is downside, targeting 0.9400 if 1.0710 remains intact.
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NZD/USD
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The NZD/USD plunged after confirming its position below 0.8065 earlier. However, it hasn't yet been able to touch the 61.8% correction, shown on the graph above. A potential extension of the downtrend is likely this week. Still, a major game changer is the Risk/Reward Ration that is detrimental in the current state, compelling us to assume a neutral stance, although we expect the general downtrend is still standing. Note that stability below 61.8% correction at 0.7920 will trigger a powerful bearish wave.

**Trading range expected this week is between key support at 0.7715, and key resistance 0.8200.

**Short-term trend is downside, targeting 0.7715 if 0.8400 remains intact.
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GBP/JPY
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The GBP/JPY is failing to maintain a directional bias, moving sideways within the recent consolidation rectangle, above 152.00 and below 155.00 key support and resistance levels. A break below 152.00 is needed to suggest a continuation of the correctional bearish wave, opening the door for a deeper correction to the 50-days SMA around 151.00, and possible 148.00 key major support. We have a neutral bias for the pair this week, within the aforementioned trading range.
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EUR/JPY
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The EUR/JPY pair is holding below 131.70 broken horizontal support, after breaking the ascending support for the rising wedge pattern shown on image. Accordingly, a continuation of the latest bearish sell-off seems likely, as long as the price holds below 131.70 over daily closing basis. Target start at the 50-days SMA near 128.50.
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EUR/GBP
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The EUR/GBP pair continues to trade within a relatively tight sideways range, above 0.8530 support and below 0.8600 resistance. A clear break below 0.8530 could extend to 0.8500 support areas near the 50-days SMA, but would provide an opportunity to re-long the pair at a better price.
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