Yen extends recent rally as the week started with risk averse sentiments. Over the weekend, Fed Vice Chair Fischer indicated in the annual meeting of the IMF that "if foreign growth is weaker than anticipated, the consequences for the U.S. economy could lead the Fed to remove accommodation more slowly than otherwise". Speaking before the Institute of International Finance Fed, Fed Governor Tarullo noted that he's "worried about growth around the world, there are more downside risks than upside risks".
Release today, China's trade surplus narrowed to USD31B in September from a record of USD49.8B in the prior month. However, the reading more than doubled the surplus from the same period last year as growth in both exports and imports beat expectations. Exports rose 15.3% yoy in September, up from 9.4% in August while Imports gained 7% yoy, the strongest reading since January-February. The trade report is expected to support the RMB at least in the short term as the increase in imports should soothe economic growth concerns and give policymakers more room to wait longer before adding stimulus.
The economic calendar is nearly empty today with Japan, US and Canada on holiday. A major question in the FX market is whether EUR/GBP is reversing the down trend. Sterling will look into UK inflation and job data for inspiration. Meanwhile, US will look into a number of growth data as well as Fed's Beige Book.
- Tuesday: Australia NAB business confidence; Swiss PPI; UK CPI and PPI; German ZEW, industrial production
- Wednesday: China CPI and PPI; UK job data; US retail sales, PPI, empire statement manufacturing, Fed's Beige Book
- Thursday: Eurozone CPI final; Canada manufacturing shipment; US jobless claims, industrial, production, Philly fed index and NAHB housing index
- Friday: Canada CPI; US building permits, housing starts and U of Michigan sentiment