Asian markets open mildly lower in response to a weak batch of data from China released during the weekend. But weakness in stocks is limited as markets main focus is on FOMC rate decision later this week. At this time of writing, Nikkei is trading down -90 pts or -0.5% while China SSE (LONDON:SSE) composite is down -44 pts, or -1.4%. China industrial production rose 6.1% in yoy in August, below expectation of 6.5% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 10.9% ytd, below expectation of 11.2% and was the lowest pace in 15 years. On the other hand, retail sales rose 10.8% yoy, beating expectation of 10.6%. Investors are calm in response to the data as the government is expected to roll out more stimulus ahead to prevent a hard landing.
Commodity currencies are so far the weakest major currencies this month. Canadian dollar is surprising the weakest one as crude oil's rebound lost momentum ahead of 50 handle. Aussie recovered since last week but that was mainly viewed as a corrective move. Meanwhile, Kiwi stays pressured as RBNZ hinted at further rate cut ahead. Euro remains the strongest major currency, mainly thanks to receding expectation of a rate hike from Fed in September. Meanwhile, the greenback is mixed.
There will be a number of central bank activities this week. FOMC rate decision will be the main event. According to CME group FedWatch data released last Thursday, futures are pricing in 23% chance of rate hike in September. That compared to 45% chance a month ago. For October hike, futures are pricing in 39% chance. For December hike, it's also priced in just 58% chance. The greenback could be given a lift if Fed either hike this week or signal the chance of a move in October.
In addition to that, RBA will release meeting minutes on Tuesday. There are speculations that RBA could cut interest rate again before the end of the year but this is far from being certain. BoJ is expected to keep monetary policies unchanged on Tuesday too. Meanwhile, SNB is also expected to keep policies unchanged on Thursday.
As for today, Japan tertiary industry index, Swiss PPI and retail sales, Eurozone industrial production will be released later today.