The forex markets opened the week quite quietly on thin holiday trading due to lunar new year. Major pairs and crosses are stuck in Friday's range even though mild strength is seen in sterling and commodity currencies. Late decline in US equities last week sent Asian stocks lower with Nikkei trading in red for most of the none. Nonetheless, the index staged a late rebound and ended 1.1% up at 17004.30. In other markets, WTI crude oil is holding above 30 handle for the moment but there is no strength to take it further higher. Gold, on the other hand, is rather firm and is trading reclaim 1170 handle again. Released today, Japan current account surplus widened to JPY 1.64T in December, labor cash earnings rose 0.1% yoy in December, Eco watchers current sentiment dropped to 46.6 in January. Eurozone Sentix investor confidence, Canada building permits and US labor market conditions index will be released later today.
Fed chair Janet Yellen's testimony to Congress will be the main focus this week. Some economists expected Yellen to strike a balanced tone emphasizing both the improvements seen in the US economy and the risks ahead. The markets have basically priced out a March hike and attention will be on hints of the chance for a rate hike by mid year. Meanwhile, dollar was sold off deeply last week as New York Fed president William Dudley warned of tightening conditions in financial markets. And Yellen's comments on the issue will be scrutinized.
On the data front, the calendar is relatively light this week. UK trade balance and production might trigger some reactions in the markets. But other than Yellen's testimony, main focuses will be on Friday's Eurozone GDP and US retail sales. Here are some highlights for the week.
- Tuesday: Australia NAB business confidence; Swiss unemployment; German industrial production, trade balance; UK trade balance
- Wednesday: UK productions; Fed Yellen testimony
- Thursday: Swiss CPI; US jobless claims, Fed Yellen testimony
- Friday: Australia home loans; German GDP, Italy GDP; Eurozone GDP; US retail sales, import prices, U of Michigan sentiments