Daily Report: Dollar Mixed Ahead Of ADP, GDP And FOMC

Dollar remains mixed as markets are awaiting for a big day in US. FOMC statement will catch most attention. There were expectation for Fed to provide better guidance on quantitative easing, at a time when investors are gauging the chance that Fed will start tapering the $85b per month ass purchases in September. Some analysts noted that Fed should at least state the qualitative criteria for starting to scale back the program. For example, Fed might mention the need for continuous fall in unemployment rate, or steady pace of job creation of at least 200k per month. Meanwhile, Fed would possibly tweak the statement to state clear that it will keep rates low for some time after the program ends.

However, there were also speculations that the FOMC statement would be a non-event. Without a press conference for clarification after the meeting, the Fed would be less likely to unveil important monetary policy, including more details about the schedule of QE tapering. Indeed, it is widely anticipated that more thorough discussion of the issue would be done in September. Also in July, policymakers would likely maintain its economic assessment.

Before that, US will release Q2 GDP data, which is expected to show 1.0% annualized growth, comparing to Q1's 1.8%. ADP report is expected to show 180k growth in private sector jobs in July. Both data would provide information on the health of US recovery and would be important for Fed to trigger the tapering. US will also release Chicago PMI, which is expected to improve to 54 in July. Canada will also release GDP data.

In Europe, it's reported that ECB president Draghi is in favor of publishing minutes of governing council meetings. He's quoted saying that as a "necessary next step" and the executive board will present a proposal for discussion and decision. Earlier, two executive board members, Coeure and Asmussen, have voice support for the move. Currently, the minutes are locked up for 30 years. Data to be released from Eurozone include Germany job data, Eurozone CPI and unemployment rate. Swiss will release Kof leading indicator and UBS consumption indicator.

Released earlier today, Japan housing starts rose 15.3% yoy in June, labor cash earnings rose 0.1% yoy in June, PMI manufacturing dropped back to 50.7 in July. UK BRC shop price dropped -0.5% yoy in July, Gfk consumer sentiment rose to -16 in July.