Aussie trades mildly lower on mixed data today. Retail sales rose 0.0% mom in February versus expectation of 0.4% mom. Building approvals rose 3.1% mom versus expectation of 2.0% mom. TD securities inflation expectation was flat mom in March. RBA rate decision is a focus this week and is expected to keep interest rate unchanged at 2.00%. AUD/USD, now trading at around 0.76, is more than 10% higher than the low of 0.6826 made in January. There are expectations that the strength in Aussie would be a key topic of discussion in RBA's rate setting meeting. The low inflationary pressure is providing RBA the scope to cut rate. And, the negative impact of Aussie's appreciation is giving it a reason to act. Yet, the central bank is still maintaining a wait-and-see stance for the moment. Attention will, thus, be on whether there is change in the accompany statement that indicates RBA is closer to another cut.
Elsewhere, Japan monetary base rose 28.5% yoy in March versus expectation of 28.7% yoy. UK construction PMI will be released in European session and is expected to drop slightly to 54.0 in March. Eurozone Sentix investor confidence is expected to rise to 7 in April. Eurozone PPI is expected drop further to -4.0% yoy in February. Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 10.3% in February. US factory orders is expected to drop -1.7% in February and labor market condition index will also be released. The economic data will likely provide little inspirations to the markets. And the move could be the fall in crude oil while dips to 36.18 so far today. Also, Sterling would stay pressured on Brexit theme.
Looking ahead, RBA, FOMC minutes, ECB monetary policy meeting accounts will be the main focus of the week. Dollar was under some pressure since dovish speech of Fed chair Janet Yellen last week. But the overall tone differed among other policy makers. The FOMC minutes would be scrutinized to get an overall picture of how the hawks and doves stand on the issue of rate hikes this year. Some Fed watchers are expecting another hike in June, but Fed fund futures are only pricing in 26% chance. The minuets might also provide the clue on whether Fed would hike twice this year as some policymakers expect. Here are some highlights for the week ahead:
- Tuesday: RBA rate decision, Australia trade balance; German factory orders, Eurozone retail sales; UK services PMI; Canada trade balance, US trade balance, ISM non-manufacturing
- Wednesday: German industrial production; Canada Ivey PMI; FOMC minutes
- Thursday: Swiss foreign currency reserves; ECB meeting accounts; Canada building permits; US jobless claims
- Friday: Japan unemployment; German trade balance; Swiss unemployment, CPI; UK productions, trade balance; Canada employment, housing starts; US wholesale inventories