Yesterday the much anticipated FOMC’s minutes from their March meeting was released. Following the FOMC’s announcement last month, and Yellen’s comments that the committee might look to increase interest rates next year, there has been a lot of pressure on gold which is seen to be an unattractive asset class when interest rates are high.
Thanks to the clear indication that Fed officials are not looking to increase rates in the near-future, the gold price reached two-week highs overnight. This climb is likely to be choppy as underlying fundamentals appear to have lost the interest of the market.
Whilst there were no major surprises in the minutes, they were seen as on the dovish side, compared to February’s minutes which were seen as hawkish. There also seems to be some evidence that committee members were torn over whether or not they should raise interest rates.
Should the US dollar, whose slump has become a feature in the markets this week, continue to weaken then this will be a major and bullish fundamental driver for the price of gold and other raw commodities. The focus on the FOMC’s projections, released on the 19 March, was on the charts that showed the target federal fund rate at the end of 2015 to be 1%. However, the minutes, released yesterday showed this to be considered too hawkish by some FOMC members.
According the minutes of the meeting, the a videoconference debate was held, in the fortnight prior to the meeting in order to discuss how to convey to the markets how short-term interest rates will be raised. It seems they settled on a non-committal approach that even if and when employment and inflation are back to acceptable levels, short-term rates will stay low as the economy may not yet be fully recovered.
Political unrest and the gold price
One of the drivers for all four precious metals last month was the unrest in Ukraine and the resulting tensions between the West and Russia. This is once again coming to the forefront in the minds of market participants as pro-Russian demonstrators in Ukraine are becoming more active and vocal. Should this escalate then gold will once again become a source for safe-haven demand, with silver following suit and palladium supply becoming a point of concern.
Silver has been left behind
Silver has been somewhat left behind by gold’s rise, it fell to a two-week low yesterday after the release of the Fed minutes. The SPDR Gold Trust has also failed to reflect any change in sentiment towards gold, having not recorded any fresh inflows since March 24th.
Gold controls to be lifted, perhaps.
Pakistan’s government has hinted that the ban on gold imports will likely be reversed in the next fortnight. The ban was placed on gold imports in January in response to the weakening currency and high rates of smuggling to India.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on the election in India where gold traders are looking to potential candidates and their ideas on the gold restrictions. There has been much speculation in the run-up to the election in regard to how the gold controls will be affected, with many speculators thinking that there will be some kind of relaxation.