Daily Market Outlook: November 20, 2014

EURUSD

The Euro is steady and consolidates above 1.25 support, following yesterday’s attempt through bear-trendline off 1.2884 and previous high at 1.2576, which was capped by bull-channel resistance trendline at 1.2600. Bullish near-term studies support further upside as the pair remains within bullish channel from 1.2357 low. However, yesterday’s candle with longer upper shadow and close below initial barrier at 1.2576, suggest further consolidation, before fresh attempts higher. Clearance of 1.2600/10 barriers, daily Kijun-sen line and 50% retracement of 1.2884/1.2357 descend, is required to confirm near-term bottom and resume recovery towards 1.2683/1.2700, Fibonacci 61.8% / round-figure barrier and pivotal 1.2769 lower top, seen in extension. Psychological 1.25 level, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.2442/1.2597 upleg, offers initial support and should ideally contain, while deeper dips could extend towards pivotal 1.2440 higher low and channel support. Break here to neutralize near-term bulls.

Res: 1.2576; 1.2597; 1.2610; 1.2683
Sup: 1.2523; 1.2500; 1.2480; 1.2442





EURJPY

The pair remains in unobstructed rally, which accelerated after taking out 148 barrier and came ticks away from the next round-figure resistance at 149.00. Strong bullish tone drives the pair towards next target at psychological 150 barrier and 150.57, Oct 2008 high, in extension. in extension. Corrective action on overbought studies on all timeframes should be anticipated, with initial support at 148, hourly higher base, ahead of 147.37, Fibonacci 38.2% of 144.86/148.92 upleg and former highs at 146.60 zone, also near 61.8%, expected to contain.

Res: 149.00; 149.50; 150.00; 150.57
Sup: 148.35; 148.00; 147.76; 147.37




GBPUSD


The pair continues to trade within consolidative range above fresh lows at 1.5590, which now offers solid support. Yesterday’s bullish Outside Day close, which signals reversal, reinforced by daily MACD bullish divergence, so far did not result in more significant action higher, as consolidation tops at 1.5720/30 zone, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5934/1.5590 and reinforced by daily 10SMA, remain intact for now. Positive tone, established on hourly chart, is fading, as 4-hour studies remains negatively aligned, which reduces chances of stronger corrective action for now. However, while 1.5590 base holds, scope for prolonged consolidative action exists, with attempts above 1.5730, expected to signal correction, which requires regain of 1.58 barrier, to be confirmed.

Res: 1.5680; 1.5700; 1.5734; 1.5765
Sup: 1.5618; 1.5590; 1.5550; 1.5500



USDJPY

The pair remains firm and hits new multi-year highs, as fresh extension higher approached 119 barrier. Strong bullish tone dominates on all timeframes and favors further gains, which have 119.83, Aug 2007 high and psychological 120 barrier, also near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of multi-year 147.68/75.55 descend, in immediate focus. Immediate support lies at 118.50, ahead of 118.00 higher low/38.2% of 116.32/118.96 upleg.

Res: 119.00; 119.50; 119.83; 120.00
Sup: 118.50; 118.00; 117.65; 117.33


AUDUSD

The pair remains under pressure and holds below 0.86 handle, as fresh weakness also broke below 0.8589 higher low, the last obstacle on the way to pivotal 0.8539 support. Near-term bears are now established, with yesterday’s long red candle, signaling an end of corrective phase, which requires confirmation on a break below 0.8539 low, also 50% retracement of 0.6007/1.1079 rally. This will signal resumption of larger downtrend and expose bear-trendline, connecting 0.9848, July 2008 peak and 0.8658, Jan 2014 low, at 0.8460. Break lower could drive the pair towards psychological 0.8000 support, in the near-term. Previous troughs at 0.8589 and 0.8646, offer immediate resistance, the latter also marks Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8794/0.8564 descend, with any stronger rally, expected to hold below 0.8700, round-figure barrier and 4-hour double, 10/55 / 20/55EMA’s bear-cross.

Res: 0.8589; 0.8600; 0.8646; 0.8680
Sup: 0.8551;0.8539; 0.8500; 0.8460




AUD/NZD

The pair resumed downmove from 1.13 top after completing the first stage, 1.0980/1.1301 ascend, with fresh weakness through psychological 1.10 support, dipping to 1.0931, ticks away from key 1.0914, low of 22 Sep and 1.0907, 200SMA. Corrective bounce, which peaked above 1.10 barrier, was short-lived, as yesterday’s close in red an below psychological 1.10 handle, suggests that bears remain fully in play and upside attempts are limited for now. As 1.0931/1.1020 correction was nearly fully retraced, immediate scope is seen for attempt through pivotal short-term support at 1.0914 and 200SMA at 1.0909, to confirm an end of 2 ½ month congestion and open way for further retracement of larger 1.0619/1.1301 ascend. Only return above 1.1020, corrective high and 1.1050, broken bull-trendline off 1.0914, would sideline immediate bears.

Res: 1.1020; 1.1050; 1.1080; 1.1100
Sup: 1.0931; 1.0914; 1.0909; 1.0880




XAUUSD

Spot Gold is losing traction in near-term trading, following failure to sustain break above 1200 barrier and daily close in red and below psychological resistance. Extension below initial 1180 support, so far found footstep at 1175, 50% of 1146/1204 upleg / daily 10SMA, however weak hourlies and south-heading 4-hour indicators, keep the downside targets at risk. Break and close below 1175, is expected to signal top formation and open way for further easing towards 1168/60, Fibonacci 61.8% / 76.4% retracement levels. Alternative scenario requires base formation at 1175 and close above 1190, previous consolidation floor, to sideline downside risk and re-focus 1200 barrier, for renewed attempt above.

Res: 1190; 1194; 1200; 1204
Sup: 1175; 1168; 1160; 1153