Daily Market Outlook: November 13, 2014

EURUSD

The Euro trades in triangular consolidation, with near-term tone in neutral mode and the pair lacking direction. The price moves within 1.24/1.25 range, as repeated attempts higher were capped at 1.25 zone, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA. Also, failure to clear descending daily 10SMA, keeps the downside at risk and limits upside attempts. Break above initial 1.25 barrier to open breakpoints at 1.2532/76, clearance of which is required to establish near-term bulls. Otherwise, easing below 1.2400/1.2390 support, is expected to bring bears back to play, for retest of 1.2357 low and resume larger downtrend on a break lower.

Res: 1.2488; 1.2500; 1.2532; 1.2576
Sup: 1.2417; 1.2392; 1.2357; 1.2300





EURJPY

The pair returns to the levels above 144 handle, after pullback from fresh high at 144.67, found support at 143.35, 50% of 142.08/144.67 rally. Subsequent bounce confirms near-term bulls remain in play and reduce downside risk , signaled by yesterday’s close in red. However, look for daily close above 144.67, to confirm bulls and open psychological 145 barrier, ahead of key med-term barrier at 145.67, 27 Dec 2013 high. Correction low at 143.35, offers initial and solid support and should ideally stay intact to prevent further easing, which would expose key near-term support and higher platform at 142 zone.

Res: 144.41; 144.67; 145.00; 145.11
Sup: 143.55; 143.35; 143.00; 142.55




GBPUSD


Cable turned bearish in near-term picture, after yesterday’s extension of corrective rally from 1.5788 was rejected at 1.5940 and subsequent sharp reversal dipped below previous low at 1.5788. Yesterday’s close in long red candle shows strong downside pressure after unsuccessful attempt to return to pivotal 1.6000/20 barrier. Resumption of larger downtrend bring short-term targets at 1.5750, June 2013 high and 1.5720, Fibonacci 61.8% of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend in play

Res: 1.5788; 1.5833; 1.5870; 1.5900
Sup: 1.5750; 1.5720; 1.5700; 1.5675




USDJPY

The pair trades in extended consolidative phase under fresh high at 116.09, posted on 11 Nov. Pullback was so far contained at 115 zone, also 50% of 113.84/116.09 upleg. Overall bullish structure favors further upside, with extension above 116.09 to open near-term targets at 117.95, Oct 2007 high and 120.12, Fibonacci 61.8% of long-term 147.68/75.55 descend. Alternative scenario requires easing below pivotal 114 support, to sideline bulls for stronger correction.

Res: 115.87; 116.09; 116.21; 116.62
Sup: 115.41; 115.00; 114.88; 114.62



AUDUSD

The pair continues to trade in near-term uptrend from 0.8539 low of 07 Nov, with 0.8743 high being reached so far, on attempts through 0.8725/30, daily 20SMA / Kijun-sen line and 50% retracement of 0.8909/0.8539 descend. Consolidative action is expected to precede fresh attempt higher and attack at pivotal 0.8760 lower platform / near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, clearance of which to possibly open key 0.89 resistance zone. Current consolidation floor and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8539/0.8743 upleg at 0.8660, should ideally hold, to prevent deeper pullback towards 0.8641, 50% and 0.8617, 61.8%. Extension below 0.8600/0.8590, to bring bears fully in play.

Res: 0.8732; 0.8743; 0.8760; 0.8800
Sup: 0.8665; 0.8641; 0.8617; 0.8590



AUD/NZD

The pair accelerated lower on intervention comments and yesterday’s long red candle confirms resumption of near-term downtrend fro 1.13 peak. Fresh weakness approaches psychological 1.1000 support, en-route to 1.0980 higher base, as the pair is looking for full retracement of 1.0980/1.13 ascend. Near-term studies are bearish and favor further downside, with daily bears gaining traction. Violation of 1.0980 base to expose lower boundary or wider 1.0914/1.1301 range, as fresh weakness broke below 61.8% retracement of the upleg. Daily 100SMA offers initial support at 1.1024, while daily cloud base at 1.1100 and formation of daily 10/20SMA’s bear cross and daily Kijun-sen line at 1.1140, mark initial layers of resistance, ahead of former consolidation top at 1.1170. Sustained break here is needed to neutralize bears.

Res: 1.1081; 1.1100; 1.1140; 1.1170
Sup: 1.1040; 1.1024; 1.1000; 1.0980




XAUUSD

Spot Gold is directionless in the near-term, with studies of 1 and 4-hour chart being in neutral mode, as the price moves within narrow 1156/69 range. Also, yesterday’s close in Doji candle, confirms indecision. However, overall tone remains negative and failure to close above descending daily 10SMA, keeps the downside at risk. Completion of daily bearish pennant pattern requires slide below 1145, 11 Nov low, to open key near-term support at 1131 and resume larger downtrend on a break here. Alternatively, lift above current range tops would ease immediate bear-pressure, while clearance of pivotal 1179/82 barriers is required to establish fresh bulls.

Res: 1169; 1173; 1179; 1182
Sup: 1156; 1152; 1145; 1142