Daily Market Outlook: January 27, 2015

EUR/USD

The euro trades in near-term consolidative phase, off fresh low at 1.1096, posted yesterday. Initial barrier at 1.1290, lower top of 23 Jan, so far capped upside attempts, guarding mores significant 1.1372 lower platform and pivotal 1.1458, former low of 16 Jan and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1679/1.1096 downleg, reinforced by daily Tenkan-Sen line and near descending daily 10SMA, currently at 1.1477.. While the latter stays intact, bears will remain in play for retest of 1.1096 and possible attack at near-term target at 1.1000. The notion is supported by neutral hourlies and bearish 4-hour studies, on the lower timeframes, while on larger pictures, bearish setup favors further downside. Alternative scenario requires today’s close above breakpoint at 1.1458, to signal formation of reversal pattern.

Res: 1.1294; 1.1318; 1.1372; 1.1458
Sup: 1.1200; 1.1150; 1.1096; 1.1050




EUR/JPY

Corrective rally from fresh low at 130.13, stalled at 133.71, 50% retracement of 137.29/130.13 downleg, keeping pivotal 134.12/68, former lows, intact. Overall bears keep the downside favored, despite yesterday’s positive close, with psychological 130 target, being in near-term focus and fresh attack here is expected on completion of corrective phase. Hourly bulls are losing traction, with loss of 132 handle expected to trigger fresh weakness. Conversely, lift above 133.71 high, also hourly cloud top and pivotal 134.12/68 barriers, to provide relief and signal stronger near-term correction.

Res: 133.71; 134.12; 134.68; 135.04
Sup: 132.33; 132.00; 131.50; 131.13




GBP/USD


Cable is attempting to resume near-term corrective rally from fresh low at 1.4950, with yesterday’s positive close and today’s attempt above 1.5110, daily 10SMA/Tenkan-Sen and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.5210/1.4950 downleg, signaling further recovery. Daily close above here is required to confirm. Hourly studies turned bullish, with 4-hour indicators attempting above midlines, supporting the notion . On the other side, negative daily studies require clear break through 1.5181, daily 20SMA and 1.5200 zone lower platform, to confirm reversal and open break point at 1.5267, 14 Jan lower top. Otherwise, lower top formation and fresh attempt lower, will be seen as favored near-term scenario, in case of recovery rally’s stall.

Res: 1.5110; 1.5150; 1.5181; 1.5210
Sup: 1.5059; 1.5000; 1.4983; 1.4950



USD/JPY

The pair remains directionless in the near-term, trading in consolidative triangular phase, following repeated rejection under pivotal daily cloud / 20 SMA, which offer strong resistance for now. Mixed technicals, positively aligned near-term studies and bearish dailies, keep the price entrenched within narrowing range, with break of either side, required to establish fresh direction. Loss of the range base at 117.20 to confirm an end of near-term corrective phase and shift focus towards 115.83, 16 Jan low and key 115.55 support, low of 16 Dec 2014, as well as low of short-term consolidation under fresh high at 121.83. Conversely, sustained break above pivotal barrier at 118.85, to shift focus towards next barriers at120.00 and 120.80.

Res: 118.32; 118.85; 119.30; 119.57
Sup: 117.85; 117.48; 117.20; 116.90



AUD/USD

The pair maintains overall bearish tone, following loss of psychological 0.8000 and Fibonacci 0.7945 supports, with bounce off fresh low at 0.7856, seen as consolidative action, before fresh push lower. Former support at 0.7945, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 0.6007/1.1079 ascend, now act as resistance and so far capped upside attempts, with extended rallies expected to be ideally limited under 0.8000 barrier, before bears re-assert for attack at initial 0.7856 support and look for the next target at 0.7700, July 2009 low. Only close above 0.8000, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.8232/0.7856 downleg, would sideline immediate bears and allow for stronger correction.

Res: 0.7945; 0.8000; 0.8050; 0.8088
Sup: 0.7900; 0.7856; 0.7800; 0.7750




AUD/NZD

The pair recovered the biggest part of pullback from 1.0753, 22 Jan high, which found support at 1.0576, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.0471/1.0753 upleg. Near-term price action consolidates under 1.07, where descending daily 55SMA capped recovery for now, with positively aligned near-term studies, seeing scope for fresh attempt through initial 1.07 barrier and attack at pivotal 1.0753 high, for resumption of recovery from 1.0350, 07 Jan low. Daily studies are gaining traction and support the notion. Alternatively, downside acceleration could be expected in case of break below 1.0456 support, with extension through daily 20SMA at 1.0536, to signal an end of corrective phase and shift focus lower.

Res: 1.0689; 1.0704; 1.0753; 1.0808
Sup: 1.0634; 1.0600; 1.0576; 1.0530




XAU/USD

Near-term price action is at the back foot, as reversal from fresh high at 1307, broke below initial support at 1279 and cracked daily 10SMA and bull-trendline, drawn off 1167 low, on extension to 1271 so far. With near-term studies gaining bearish tone, downside risk increases and close below daily 10SMA and trendline support, is expected to trigger further easing. Fresh bears could extend to 1253, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1167/1307 upleg, reinforced by 200SMA and marking pivotal support. Break here to further weaken overall bearish structure and mark top at 1300 zone. Conversely, holding above the trendline support and daily 10SMA, would keep fresh upside attempts in play.

Res: 1287; 1293; 1298; 1307
Sup: 1276; 1271; 1266; 1253